So this Historical recession in housing affordability must have caused house prices to drop in the past year, right?
It’s a mixed bag.
Of the 400 largest urban housing markets tracked by the seasonally adjusted Zillow Home Value Index, 174 markets in April had local home prices well below their pandemic peak. The other 226 markets either rallied back to the peak of the pandemic or set a higher peak outright in April.
Western markets like Boise and San Francisco have seen local home prices fall 10% from their 2022 peak, while markets like Miami and Cincinnati have just set new all-time highs for home prices. local in April.
Real estate is local, however, and this separate—and only straight up weird—the housing market really takes it to extremes.
Taylor Marr, deputy chief economist at Redfin, wrote: “The wild pandemic-era housing market makes the bullish trend more localized than it has been since 2009. in a report published this week. “The historic price growth gap between San Francisco and Miami shows just how strong the local housing market is, with the Bay Area losing homebuyers and South Florida attracting them.”
This split market, Marr said, “means it is more important than ever to focus on local trends.”
Why has the housing market been so divided over the past year?
One reason is that Western housing markets are simply more sensitive to interest rates. First, Western markets have struggled with affordability after years of overheating home prices, leaving them vulnerable to affordability stress whenever mortgage rates spike. Second, these Western markets are heavily concentrated in tech jobs, which are vulnerable whenever the Fed goes into anti-inflation mode.
“The fact that prices in Miami are rising well despite the country pull back in buying a home shows the relative popularity of Florida still here. Although some employees are returning to the office at least a few days a weekThe pandemic has given many Americans more freedom about where they choose to live — and many of them are choosing places where spending $1.5 million on a regular home isn’t the norm. standard,” wrote Marr.
To understand clearly This split housing market, Luck constructed 11 state-level maps using seasonally adjusted Zillow Family Value Index data. These maps show how house prices at ZIP levels in April 2023 compare to the peak of the pandemic. If a specific ZIP code is highlighted in blue, that means local home prices in April 2023 were at an all-time high.
Of the 1,564 California ZIP codes tracked by zillow, 98.5% of local house prices are below the pandemic peak; California’s 1.5% ZIP codes were at the peak of the pandemic in April.
Of the 1,554 Texas ZIP codes tracked by zillow69.6% of local home prices were below their pandemic peak, while 30.4% of Texas ZIP codes were at their pandemic peak in April.
Of the 927 Florida ZIP codes tracked by zillow76.2% of local home prices were below their pandemic peak, while 23.8% of Florida’s ZIP codes were at their pandemic peak in April.
Of the 1,038 Ohio ZIP codes tracked by zillow, 46% are below the pandemic peak for local home prices; 54% of Ohio ZIPs at their peak during the pandemic in April.
Of the 722 North Carolina ZIP codes tracked by zillow38.8% of local home prices were below their pandemic peak, while 61.2% of North Carolina’s ZIP codes were at their pandemic peak in April.
Of the 303 Arizona ZIP codes tracked by zillow90.1% of local home prices were below their pandemic peak, while 9.9% of Arizona’s ZIP codes were at their pandemic peak in April.
Of the 782 Missouri ZIP codes tracked by zillow, 30.4% of local house prices are below the peak of the pandemic; 69.6% of Missouri ZIP codes were at their peak during the pandemic in April.
Of the 424 Maryland ZIP codes tracked by zillow46% of local home prices were below their pandemic peak, while 54% of Maryland’s ZIP codes were at their pandemic peak in April.
Of the 259 Connecticut ZIP codes tracked by zillow25.1% of local home prices were below their pandemic peak, while 74.9% of Connecticut ZIP codes were at their pandemic peak in April.
Of the 22 District of Columbia ZIP codes tracked by zillowone ZIP below the pandemic peak for local home prices, while 21 ZIP codes for the District of Columbia were at the pandemic peak in April.
Of the 230 Vermont ZIP codes tracked by zillow13.5% were below the pandemic peak for local home prices, while 86.5% of Vermont’s ZIP code was at the pandemic peak for local home prices in April.
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