To my infinite chagrin, we’re probably not getting tech IPOs until later this year
But there are reasons to be optimistic that we will get a lot of public offering
IPO market so far 2023 is still a goose egg and we probably won’t get any interesting IPOs for another quarter or two. This is extremely sad for your friendly, local TechCrunch+ reporting team, who love the S-1 more than anything else.
The good news is that when we get the IPO train back on track, we’ll be able to see the mass market launch go pretty well.
Let’s talk about why.
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If you dig back through Silicon Valley Bank research, which feels quite different now than it did two weeks ago, you can pretty well understand why institutions aren’t expecting a bunch of IPOs in the near future. In its State of the Market report for the first half of 2023, SVB predicted that the market for “US VC-backed technology IPOs will likely be dormant in the first half of 2023.”
So far, that has been 100% true.
However, the bank also predicts that as “the market becomes clearer about [interest] interest rate cap [and] futures revenue multiples are in line with long-term averages and pent-up demand from institutional investors” and unicorns, we should expect no less than ten IPOs in the second half of this year from joint venture-backed companies.
When we first read that a while ago, it had a sense of optimism. Why did we go from zero to double in such a short amount of time?
Since then, we’ve had a little more context. TechCrunch+ recently spoke with Arjun KapurManaging partner and founder at Forecast Labs, on the IPO question.
(Forecast Labs is a sister entity to Comcast Ventures. Comcast Ventures is a venture outlet that invests in areas of strategic interest for its parent company, Comcast NBCUniversal, an amalgamation of experience companies. From Internet access to cable TV to content itself, the forecast, in contrast, trades equity for access to television advertising, essentially providing CPA-based advertising. lower-than-market on the tube for equity. This is a pretty interesting model for companies that want to reach a larger consumer audience, but at a discount.)